Area Home Sales Jump, Fueled by Tax Credit

Existing home sales in Central Texas rose 6.4 percent in September, the first year-over-year increase in more than two years, and the median sales price also was up, rising 2 percent to $185,250, the Austin Board of Realtors reported Tuesday.

Sales were buoyed by factors including a federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for eligible first-time homebuyers and mortgage interest rates that are hovering around 5 percent.

The 1,780 sales last month were up from 1,748 in August and up from 1,673 in September 2008. The number of sales due to close in October was up 24 percent from a year ago, an indication that the tax credit is continuing to spur sales, real estate agents and experts say.

With pending sales up and prices stabilizing, it seems "to indicate a market that is beginning to recover," said Charles Heimsath, an Austin real estate consultant, although he predicts "a slow ascent into recovery over the next 12 to 18 months."

Heimsath and other experts have cautioned that the housing market, locally and nationally, could lose steam if the tax credit is not renewed, although there are proposals in Congress to extend or broaden it.

"Still, it does appear the worst of the housing downturn is behind us, although it may be some time before we see a marked turn upward," said D'Ann Petersen, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, adding that she expects "a slow, prolonged recovery."

Nearly half the sales in September were for homes costing between $100,000 and $199,999 — a typical price range for a first-time home.

Nick Teplitz moved to Austin from Los Angeles in late May, drawn by the city's reputation as a "hip, fun city" and lower housing costs than in California.

He said the tax credit was a factor in his purchase of a unit at 2020 Congress, an apartment building that was converted to condominiums on South Congress Avenue.

Teplitz, a writer, closed on his condo June 30, paying under $100,000 for a one-bedroom unit.

Instead of "flushing $2,000 a month down the toilet" on rent in Los Angeles, Teplitz, 32, found he could own his home in Austin for one-third that much.

He said he thinks the tax credit should be extended, because it's "definitely going to keep the market afloat right now ... and keep people buying."

Jay Gohil, chairman of the real estate board, said the tax credit is likely to feed sales into November as buyers scramble to make the deadline.

The credit was passed earlier this year as part of the federal stimulus package. It provides a 10 percent credit, up to $8,000, for first-time buyers and those who have not owned a home in the previous three years. It is available to single buyers who make less than $75,000 a year and couples who make $150,000 or less.

Through September, the 14,286 home sales were down 14 percent from the same nine months of 2008, and the median price was unchanged, at $190,000.

But home sales have been slowly improving this year along with the economy, spurred by the tax credit and low mortgage rates.

Nell Hanson, a real estate agent with JB Goodwin Co., said the company "has had a huge influx of buyers who want to use the tax credit." Although an extension of the credit would be beneficial, "the low interest rates and the potential rise in the median price in Austin for 2010 will keep sales going up," Hanson said.

Greg Cooper, CEO of Goldwasser Real Estate in Austin, said "it would be suicide for the (housing) market" if the tax credit isn't renewed.

"I can't see them (Congress) taking it away right now," Cooper said, at least not until job growth comes back and unemployment eases.

Cooper said sales at his firm were up 51 percent in September over a year earlier, and "if we close what we have pending," October's sales will be triple that of last October's.

"Obviously, the stimulus is clearly helping," Cooper said.

Steve Cochrane, managing director at Moody's Economy.com, an economic forecasting and consulting firm, said he thinks that there is "a better than even chance" the credit will be renewed. He noted that there are positive ripple effects, as owners sell their entry-level homes to first-time buyers and are able to move to another home.

Asked whether the credit is artificially propping up the market, Cochrane said: "One can argue that any kind of government stimulus is artificial. But if it acts as the spark to get the market going, that can be fine. The government doesn't have to stay in the business of providing the spark forever."

By Shonda Novak
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
snovak@statesman.com; 445-3856
Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Why Mortgage Rates Aren't Lower

With storm clouds hanging over the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has gone on the offensive, slashing the federal funds target rate by 3 full percentage points—to 2.25 percent—since September. But despite the central bank's aggressive action, prospective homebuyers are left scratching their heads. After all, the average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has fallen by only about half a percentage point, to 5.85 percent, since mid-September. So what gives?
Here's a look at the factors influencing today's mortgage rates and a peek at where rates might be headed.

Does the Fed set mortgage rates? No. The Fed is responsible for setting the federal funds target rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. "A bank's balance sheet needs to balance every day," says Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "If a bank needs funds, it will borrow. If it has a surplus, it will lend—at the federal funds rate." Interest rates on short-term certificates of deposit and commercial paper are closely linked to the federal funds rate, Mayland says, but its influence on fixed-rate mortgages is less direct.

Does the federal funds rate affect mortgage rates? Only indirectly. The fed funds rate affects a lender's borrowing costs. When the federal funds rate is cut, lenders pay less for the funding they need to finance loans. As such, they can reduce the interest rates they charge on mortgages without hurting their profit margins. "You're not looking at any kind of direct relationship," says Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics. "When you think about a fixed-rate mortgage, you're talking functionally about a 30-year bet of which the short- run costs of capital are but a minute part."

So what are the key factors that determine mortgage interest rates? Fixed mortgage rates typically track the yield on the 10-year treasury note. "The 30-year mortgage tends to have roughly the same [sensitivity to interest-rate changes] as a 10-year treasury," says T.J. Marta, a fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "On average, people pay off their mortgage roughly every 10 years." The outlook for inflation plays a key role in determining the yield on the 10-year treasury, Marta says.
In order to compensate lenders and investors for the risk that home loans will not be repaid, mortgage interest rates are set higher than the yields on 10-year treasuries, which are essentially risk free. Historically, the typical difference between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield—known as the spread—has been roughly 1½ percentage points. In the mortgage industry, the difference between these two rates is often referred to as a "risk premium."

How have those factors influenced mortgage rates lately? Although 10-year Treasury yields have declined in recent months, risk premiums have widened dramatically. The spread between the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield has ballooned nearly 60 percent over the past year, to about 2½ percentage points, according to HSHAssociates.com, which tracks mortgage rates. "That spread—the normal 1.5 percentage points—has gone haywire," says Orawin Velz of the Mortgage Bankers Association.

What is driving up those risk premiums? Before the housing crisis, mortgages were considered safe investments, so risk premiums were slim. During the housing boom, huge swaths of home loans were pooled together and sold to investors in the form of mortgage-backed securities. But rising delinquencies on subprime home loans led to large-scale losses for investors holding such products.
With demand for mortgage-backed securities evaporating, higher returns were required to attract new buyers, who were fleeing to safer investments like treasury securities. Meanwhile, banks—which have absorbed billions of dollars in losses since the onset of the crisis—have been requiring tougher underwriting standards and wider spreads on new mortgages.
"The spreads [between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates] are wide because of a pickup in defaults and delinquencies and an expectation of more to come," says Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners. (As a result, the recent declines in the yield of the 10-year treasury have been more than offset by the escalating risk premiums. That has prevented mortgage rates from falling as much as they otherwise might.

Will these risk premiums decrease anytime soon? As portfolios begin to heal from the housing market's wrath, risk premiums should begin to decrease, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSHAssociates.com. "We'll start to get to a point where lenders will feel more comfortable passing along more of those declines in interest rates [to customers] and certainly expanding—nibbling at the fringes—of lending they used to embrace wholeheartedly," Gumbinger says. "So you should see some of those risk premiums start to decline, especially for the best credit quality borrowers."
Indeed, the risk premiums have decreased recently—although they remain well above historical norms. Gumbinger credits the narrowing in part to recent changes allowing government-sponsored mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to increase their holdings of mortgage-backed securities. "Lots of liquidity is becoming available to good credit quality borrowers," he says.

What's the outlook for the 10-year treasury? While risk premiums may decline, the 10-year treasury yield is expected to increase. Marta of RBC Capital Markets expects the yield to be about 3.9 percent by the end of the year, up from its current yield of about 3.5 percent. "Back in January, on the [Société Géneralé] meltdown, we made our second-lowest yield in [modern] history," Marta says. "I don't really see that yields are going to get a whole lot lower than this."
So where will mortgage rates be at the end of the year? Velz of the Mortgage Bankers Association expects the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage to be just over 6 percent at the end of the year. Rates could go lower, she says, should the economy slip into a protracted recession—which she does not expect.

How attractive are current mortgage rates? Although higher risk premiums may be preventing rates from falling as low as they otherwise might, today's mortgage interest rates are still pretty darn compelling. After all, the lowest average 30-year fixed rate ever recorded by Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey was 5.21 percent in June 2003. By that standard, the current weekly average mortgage rate of 5.85 percent is "very attractive," says Lincoln Anderson, chief investment officer and chief economist at LPL Financial Services.

By Luke Mullins
Posted March 28, 2008
US News & World Report