Austin Housing Market OK, Will Improve This Year

Austin Housing Market OK, Will Improve This Year
The spiraling home market has neared stabilization and could see a slight rebound in Austin this year, according to local real estate experts during a 2010 housing forecast Wednesday.

Speakers during the Austin Board of Realtors and the Home Builders Association of Greater Austin event pointed to the relatively better job market as one sign improvement is on the way.

The Texas Workforce Commission reported the area lost about 4,300 jobs in the 12 months ending November 2009, which is better when compared with cities like Houston and Dallas, which lost 88,900 and 50,700 jobs respectively.

The program was presented and moderated by Eldon Rude, who directed a residential real estate market study comparing Austin with 30 other U.S. metros. He said Austin builders cut new home production by about 19 percent last year, breaking ground on 6,490 new homes.

“Starts have stabilized in recent quarters, builders have closed more homes than they have started for the last three years. This strategy has resulted in far fewer inventory issues in the Austin new home market compared to the more challenged markets across the U.S.,” said Rude.

The study anticipates new home starts maintaining 2009 levels, primarily due to slow job growth through at least the first half of 2010.

Though home pricing and buying has improved, experts said the true test will come when interests rates begin to climb and the stimulus-fueled tax credits run out.

Source: Austin Business Journal : Thursday, January 14, 2010, 9:58am CST

Austin Ranked Best City to Invest in Commercial Real Estate

Austin Ranked Best City to Invest in Commercial Real Estate

Austin has the best prospects for commercial real estate investment this year, a Grubb & Ellis Co. forecast reported today.

The Santa Ana, Calif-based real estate services and investment firm said it expects commercial real estate will continue to falter this year, but at a slower rate, according to the 2010 forecast. Most property types will reach bottom pricing near the end of 2010 with a slow recovery beginning in 2011, officials said.

In a ranking of the top 10 markets for long-term office, industrial, retail and multi-housing investment potential, Austin was listed No. 1. Houston was the only other Texas city to make the list, taking the sixth spot.

“Because commercial real estate lags the labor market, it still has a ways to go before reaching its own low point,” said Bob Bach, Grubb & Ellis senior vice president and chief economist. “The good news is that the freefall we saw in 2009 is over and the future is more certain, giving owners and users of real estate the confidence to begin making decisions again.”

The investment market will see a slight rebound in 2010, according to the forecast, with at least some assets entering the market in 2010. Officials said the shift should prompt increased sales volume of 20 to 30 percent. The report said record-high office vacancy rates will likely continue, reaching as high as 19 percent by the year’s close.

Source: Austin Business Journal : Monday, January 4, 2010

Austin 2nd Fastest Growing City in the Nation!

Austin was the nation’s second-fastest-growing metropolitan area between 2007 and 2008, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The population in the Austin-Round Rock area grew 3.8 percent to 1.65 million between July 2007 and July 2008. Among major U.S. metros, that growth rate was second only to Raleigh-Cary, N.C., which experienced a 4.3 percent population uptick during the 12-month period.

Large metro areas — those with 2008 populations of 1 million or more — were home to nine of the 10 fastest-growing counties. Texas had the largest number of counties on the 100 fastest-growing counties list with a total of 19. The Lone Star State was also home to 10 counties among the 25 with the highest numerical gains.

Four metro areas--including two in Texas--increased their populations by more than 100,000 people between 2007 to 2008: Dallas-Fort Worth (147,000), Houston (130,000), Phoenix (116,000) and Atlanta (115,000).

From Ausitn Business Journal 3/19/09

Texas Counties Show BIG Growth Numbers!

Ten of the top 25 fastest growing counties in the country between July 2007 and July 2008 are in Texas, according to a Capital Area Council of Governments analysis of the most-recent U.S. Census report.

That’s more than any other state, with California registering six of the top 25 and Arizona and North Carolina each capturing two.

Texas counties among the top 25 include:

Harris, No. 2
Tarrant, No. 5
Bexar, No. 10
Collin, No. 12
Dallas, No. 13
Travis, No. 14
Fort Bend, No. 18
Denton, No. 21
Williamson, No.23
Hidalgo, No. 24

Central Texas counties experienced considerable population increases over the period—emphasizing the need for a continued focus on managed growth, CAPCOG officials said.

CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES: The numerical and percentage growth break down among counties in CAPCOG’s service area is as follows:

Bastrop: 1,364, 1.9 percent
Blanco: 81, 0.9 percent
Burnet: 901, 2.1 percent
Caldwell: 299, 0.8 percent
Fayette: 241, 1.1 percent
Hays: 7,526, 5.3 percent
Lee: 115, 0.7 percent
Llano: 58, 0.3 percent
Travis: 28,651, 3 percent
Williamson: 22,172, 6.0 percent

“These latest figures from the Census Bureau underscore the fact that we can’t stop talking about how to manage growth effectively, even during a recession,” said Brian Kelsey, director of community and economic development for CAPCOG. “The number of people relocating to the Austin-Round Rock region has likely slowed as a result of the recession, but we need to appreciate that Hays, Travis, and Williamson alone added nearly 60,000 people between July 2007 and July 2008, according to these latest figures. For some perspective, that’s more people than the entire city of Cedar Park.”

From the Austin Business Journal 3/27/09

2009 Austin Area Market Update - Alamo Title

While homeowners nationwide have watched their home values plummet, the Central Texas real estate market has fared much better in comparison. Economic forecasters now say a looming housing shortage will increase real estate prices within the next two years.

With the relatively healthy local economy encouraging continued population inflows to Austin, economic consultant Angelos Angelou forecasts demand to soon outstrip supply, a theory consistent with current real estate sales absorption rates (see attached).

Angelou estimates newcomers move to Austin at a rate of approximately 42,000 per year. New residents coupled with a decrease in the number of new home starts locally may lead to a shortage over the next few years, he said. Three years ago, we were building at the pace of 18,000 a year, but last year, only 8,100 were built; this year, only 6,000 new homes will be built.

Angelou said this is an ideal time to buy, and that current sellers may consider waiting for increased demand and prices in the upcoming housing shortage.
Like in January and last fall, the number of transactions per month are still down as many borrowers face difficulty securing financing and investors wait for signs of confidence in the markets. Austin-area prices remain stable and affordable, and properties are selling, on average, after just 83 days on market.